Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America.

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread.

Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic mechanisms governing host movement are rare. We built a mechanistic movement model to investigate how the interplay between multiple ecological drivers affects the risk of tick-borne pathogen spread across heterogeneous landscapes. We used the model to generate simulations of tick dispersal by migratory birds and terrestrial hosts across theoretical landscapes varying in resource aggregation, and we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different parameters on the infected tick spread rate, tick infection prevalence and infected tick density. Our findings highlight the importance of host movement and tick population dynamics in explaining the infected tick spread rate into new regions. Tick infection prevalence and infected tick density were driven by predictors related to the infection process and tick population dynamics, respectively. Our results suggest that control strategies aiming to reduce tick burden on tick reproduction hosts and encounter rate between immature ticks and pathogen amplification hosts will be most effective at reducing tick-borne disease risk.

Improved Simulation of Electrodiffusion in the Node of Ranvier by Mesh Adaptation.

In neural structures with complex geometries, numerical resolution of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) equations is necessary to accurately model electrodiffusion. This formalism allows one to describe ionic concentrations and the electric field (even away from the membrane) with arbitrary spatial and temporal resolution which is impossible to achieve with models relying on cable theory. However, solving the PNP equations on complex geometries involves handling intricate numerical difficulties related either to the spatial discretization, temporal discretization or the resolution of the linearized systems, often requiring large computational resources which have limited the use of this approach. In the present paper, we investigate the best ways to use the finite elements method (FEM) to solve the PNP equations on domains with discontinuous properties (such as occur at the membrane-cytoplasm interface). 1) Using a simple 2D geometry to allow comparison with analytical solution, we show that mesh adaptation is a very (if not the most) efficient way to obtain accurate solutions while limiting the computational efforts, 2) We use mesh adaptation in a 3D model of a node of Ranvier to reveal details of the solution which are nearly impossible to resolve with other modelling techniques. For instance, we exhibit a non linear distribution of the electric potential within the membrane due to the non uniform width of the myelin and investigate its impact on the spatial profile of the electric field in the Debye layer.